The pledges made by governments resulting from the Copenhagen climate conference are nowhere near enough to hold global tempe-ratures to the summit's agreed goal of no more than a 2C rise, researchers have calculated. The results, which are the most rigorous analyses yet made of pledges submitted to the UN last month, will increase pressure on rich countries to make far deeper cuts in negotiations over the next year.

Researchers from the Sustainability Institute, the MIT Sloan School of Management in the US conclude that emissions reduction pledges would allow global mean temper-ature to increase approximately 3.9C, a level that could see global warming run out of control. "Under the current proposals, global emissions of greenhouse gases would increase 0.8C a year between now and 2020, warned the joint report. It concluded that to reach the Copenhagen accord's goal of no more than a 2C rise, global emissions must peak within the next decade and fall to at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050, which would require emissions cuts of 3% annually after 2020.